Guide · 13 July 2026 · 4 min read
Forecast with a floor, a likely case and an upside
A single revenue number invites argument. A range with named contents invites management.
When a firm forecasts one number, the meeting argues about the number. When it forecasts three, the meeting manages the business: the floor you would resource to, the likely case you plan around, the upside you would staff for if two named pursuits land. Same data, entirely different conversation.
Each figure has a definition
The floor is contracted work plus preferred-bidder positions, money that requires a disaster to lose. The likely case is the probability-weighted pipeline, believable exactly to the degree the stage definitions are honest. The upside is every live pursuit converting, useful mainly for capacity planning and humility. Publish the definitions with the numbers, every time.
Interrogate the gap, not the total
The managerial content lives in the spaces between the figures. The gap between floor and likely is a list of specific pursuits: which two would you back, and what would improve their odds this month? The gap between likely and plan is the qualified-pipeline shortfall, which prices exactly how much origination work this quarter owes the next one.
A forecast is not a prophecy. It is a to-do list wearing numbers.